Computer industry valuations close to the historical average waiting time for roses 申威1600

The computer industry Valuation: rose close to the historical average waiting time of Haitong Securities issued in September 7th, the computer industry research report, the report is as follows: 16 years since February, narrow shocks bottoming. The 16 year decline in the computer index is mainly concentrated in January, and the lowest point in February is higher than the lowest point in 15 years in September. Since February the volatility has been reduced from February to early September, the cumulative increase of 10.8% over the same period, the CSI 300 index was 14.2%. The history of computer two quarter underperform probability; a higher probability of a quarter and the three quarter outperform, but 16 years in some special cases, in contrast with previous years, fuse and market risk appetite in January dropped the 16Q1 computer significantly underperformed the broader market rebound, Q2. Q3 has experienced a relative decline in 7-8 months after the downside in September to continue the probability is not large, in the short term is still in a narrow range of shocks, continue to lower the space is limited. In the short term, the environment is in a friendly atmosphere. The 16 year report of the computer is relatively good, revenue grew by 15.3%, the highest in nearly 6 years, net profit growth of 26.2%, while gross profit margin increased by 2.3 percentage points, industrial upgrading driven by industry profit margins. In addition, the 15 quarter of the merger and acquisition boom in the computer industry, the higher the performance of the completion rate of commitment (we count the completion rate of 15 for the year of 93%), will provide a strong guarantee for the full year results of the growth of 16 in. In the short term, September is still concentrated in the period, while before the lifting of the computer company in December is relatively small pressure, the overall environment of partial security. Industry valuations close to the historical average. As of September 2, 2016, the computer industry price earnings ratio (TTM) 58.1 times, close to the historical average price earnings ratio of 47.9 times since 2006, while the historical median price earnings ratio of 44.8 times. At present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 premium rate of more than 4.6 times higher than the historical average of 3.35 times. In the short term computer plate has been close to the historical average valuation is expected to this position, even more dropping, the magnitude will not be too big, more is to change the time and space. Comparison of the computer industry, the dynamic price earnings ratio (TTM) in the industry for seventh, and 15 years in the industry remained throughout the year second level, after the national defense industry, computer industry valuation levels have fallen. Compared to the United States after 2000 movements have different approaches but equally satisfactory results. From the macro perspective, the construction of the information highway in the United States in 90s to promote economic transformation, and 00 years after the IT innovation is an important driving force of its development, with the current information economic background of our country, IT economic innovation has become the core driving force for the upgrading of the industrial structure, there are different approaches but equally satisfactory results. The reference Nasdaq the historical trend, the index peaked in March 2000, then experienced a rapid adjustment of one and a half months after the shock stabilized, but at that time due to the overall increase is still higher than the historical average of one standard deviation above, in the subsequent year stock index shock bottoms, and in the historical average index stabilized near.相关的主题文章: