In the eyes of the SG in 2017 four big black swan aizi

In the eyes of the SG in 2017 four big black swan U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks Beijing time 7 days of Societe Generale strategists released a new report, described their forecast for the global economy, a list of the black swan event list. CNBC reported that global growth is expected to face a series of risks, including the policy of the United States and Europe China economic uncertainty, a hard landing, the market suddenly re pricing, consumers choose to save rather than spend etc.. The report released Tuesday stressed: policy uncertainty is still the biggest risk in our eyes." "The risk is twofold. First, the uncertainty of the policy itself will greatly inhibit the investment and employment of enterprises, as well as the implementation of structural reforms. Secondly, it may lead to financial instability. For example, the United Kingdom from Europe, on the one hand, the impact is still huge, then the impact of the latter proved short-lived, largely due to the Bank of England’s positive response." SG estimated that the U.S. economy will grow 2.2% in 2017, before the end of 2017, the interest rate will rise to 1.25%. However, the SG believe that U.S. economy in the second half of 2018 will be in trouble: "this is a crucial point, of course, our prediction is established without any assumptions on the basis of a large fiscal stimulus." SG eyes of the biggest economic risk is as follows: a greater drag on 1 policy uncertainty: 30% 2 Chinese economic hard landing risk has eased 20%: 3 market the central bank tightening and Inflation Based on the price: 20% 4 consumers choose more savings: 10% they estimated the euro area will grow by 1.4% next year. "We predict growth in the euro zone is slightly higher than expected, but it is worth noting that our expectations and expectations of the eurozone consumer are more optimistic, expected that they will come up with some savings for expenditure. In addition, we expect the wake of the euro zone consumer, residential real estate investment will be greatly improved." They believe that the ECB will not be able to achieve its goal of price stability: in the short term, due to the impact of oil prices, the nominal inflation rate will be more than 2%. However, core consumer prices, we expect 2020 will be only 1.5%, which means that the ECB will miss its target." They expect China to grow by 6% in 2017, below the general forecast of 6.3%. Their judgment on Brazil, Russia, India, the other three BRIC countries also lower than expected. They also estimate that oil prices will reach $2017 by the end of 60. The report also acknowledged that, compared with the views of the majority of the market, we believe that we pay more attention to downside risks". (Zi Jin) editor in chief: Feng Dewei相关的主题文章: